2023 T-Minus year in review.

>> Maria Varmazis: Hey, T-Minus crew, it's our last Daily Show of the year, as we are taking the last week of December off for a holiday break. So as 2023 comes to a close, for today's show, we take a look back at the year that was for space and share our thoughts on what we're looking forward to in the coming year. Bring it on 2024.

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Today is December 22, 2023. I'm Maria Varmazis.

>> Alice Carruth: I'm Alice Carruth and this is T-Minus.

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>> Maria Varmazis: The White House releases its new Space Framework. Firefly Aerospace launches its Fly the Lightning mission and Mangata Networks partners with Microsoft to develop an AI-enabled Edge cloud product connected via satellite.

>> Alice Carruth: And N2K Vice-President Brandon Karpf will be joining the two of us for the second part of this show, as we round up the best of space activities we saw over the last 12 months and look at what we think will be the big developments in space in 2024.

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>> Maria Varmazis: All right, let's take a look at our Daily Briefing on this Friday. Folks have been waiting for it, and now the National Space Council has unveiled the United States Novel Space Activities Authorization and Supervision Framework. Does it have an acronym yet? Is it NSAAF? [laughing]

>> Alice Carruth: Who knows?

>> Maria Varmazis: Well, who knows? I will just call it the new framework for now. Okay, so the new space framework is a very needed updated guidance on who in the federal government will be regulating what in private space, meaning commercial, academic, and nonprofit use -- basically everyone, not NASA and the military. The White House says their emphasis with this new framework is ensuring appropriate supervision, while also being agile and responsive as the industry forges ahead at breakneck speed. And here's just one quote of many from this new framework that has a lot to chew on. "To the greatest extent feasible, the Secretaries of Commerce and Transportation should minimize burdens on industry and U.S. government entities by aligning oversight processes for private space-sector novel activities, including strict timelines for applications and interagency reviews with a transparent elevation process to adjudicate disagreements and should harmonize the timing of and language in legislative proposals and respective administrative procedure-act rulemakings. Okay, so undoubtedly, this new framework will be required reading for a lot of folks over the next week, if not beyond, as we all start ramping back up in the new year. And as the U.S. legislators return to work, we'll have a clearer picture of the potential impacts this new framework will have on the commercial space industry.

>> Alice Carruth: And staying with that commercial space industry, a huge congratulations to Firefly Aerospace, who closed out the year with a successful launch of their Alpha FLTA004 mission. The rocket had a dedicated mission called Fly the Lightning to launch Lockheed Martin's electrically steerable antenna demonstrate a payload. The payload was integrated into a Terran Orbital Nebula small satellite bus and is expected to calibrate and be ready for operation in much less time than traditional on-orbit sensors, demonstrating the delivery of rapid capabilities to U.S. war fighters stationed across the globe. And in addition, congrats, must go to the team at NASA Space Flight who provided the live stream for Firefly and did a phenomenal job.

>> Maria Varmazis: They absolutely did. Satellite communications company Mangata Networks has announced a new partnership with Microsoft aimed at developing an AI-enabled Edge cloud product connected via satellite. This partnership represents a long-term commitment between Mangata Networks and Microsoft, marking the beginning of a sustained collaborative journey aimed at continuously advancing cloud technology through innovative satellite connectivity. The pilot phase of the planned product called Azure is scheduled to commence in the late second quarter of 2024, ahead of Mangata's planned constellation launch.

>> Alice Carruth: The U.S. Space Development Agency has released a draft solicitation for the Proliferated War Fighter Space Architecture known as PWSA Futures Program, or PFP, ground segment integration, also referred to as PGI. They do love an abbreviation in the U.S. military. The vision of the futures program is to provide a mechanism for the demonstration of new technical capabilities. The ground segment integration will provide a common, enduring ground infrastructure and resources to minimize cost and complexity for space vehicle demonstrations and experimentation programs. This solicitation will include all activities required for the development, program management, systems engineering integration, and operations and maintenance of the PGI, and we've added a link to the solicitation in our show notes.

>> Maria Varmazis: The ISS has been shedding some weight ahead of the holiday overindulgence. If only it was that easy for us.

>> Alice Carruth: Oh.

>> Maria Varmazis: SpaceX's Dragon capsule undocked from the International Space Station on Thursday from the station's Harmony module. At the time of undocking, the station was flying at an altitude of about 260 miles southwest of Chile. After reentering Earth's atmosphere, this spacecraft will make a parachute-assisted splashdown off the coast of Florida today. And Northrop Grumman Cygnus spacecraft was released from the ISS's Unity module earlier today. At the time of release, the station was flying at about 260 miles over the Atlantic Ocean. Cygnus then performed a planned destructive reentry in which the spacecraft, filled with trash packed by the station crew, burned up in Earth's atmosphere.

>> Alice Carruth: I'll bet that made a pretty sight. I always wondered that. I'm like they don't show any videos of these things.

>> Maria Varmazis: Pretty trash burning up and --

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah, pretty trash.

>> Maria Varmazis: Pretty trash.

>> Alice Carruth: Just a thought. The IAAA Computer Society has announced its technology predictions report for 2023, featuring the top 19 technological advancements and trends anticipated to shape the industry this year and beyond. The annual report provides a comprehensive analysis of each technology's predicted success, the potential impact on humanity, predicted maturity, and predicted market adoption and includes horizons for commercial adoption opportunities for academia, governments, professional organizations, and industry. Among the technologies recognized were space information technology and communication and sustainable space manufacturing.

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>> Maria Varmazis: You can read the full report by following the link in our show notes, along with links to all the other headlines we've mentioned. And we have, of course, added some extras for you to read, including TechCrunch's look ahead to 2024, and we'll be sharing our own thoughts on that later, and the Kennedy Space Center's 2024 Roundup, and a write up on ESA's new pinhole propulsion system, and CGTN's look at who's making waves in China/U.S. space collaboration.

>> Alice Carruth: Hey, T-Minus crew, tune in tomorrow for T-Minus "Deep Space," our show for extended interviews, special editions, and deep dives with some of the most influential professionals in the space industry. Tomorrow we have Kirsten Hibbard talking about the amazing work of the Challenger Learning Centers. Check it out while you're driving to yet another holiday concert, kicking up your feet for the start of a nice end-of-year break, or last-minute panic shopping for Crimbo. You don't want to miss it.

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>> Maria Varmazis: And since it's our last Daily Show of the year today, we're doing our year-end roundup and 2024 look ahead. Joining us for this chat is our boss and N2K Vice-President Brandon Karpf.

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All right. So let's start with the year that was, 2023. Lots of stuff happened. We all had some favorites, I imagine. Who wants to start? Who wants to nominate their faves from 2023?

>> Alice Carruth: Go on, big boss. You can start with it.

>> Maria Varmazis: Brandon, would you like to go? Go ahead.

>> Brandon Karpf: How could I resist? Thank you. Appreciate it. To me, the biggest story of the year was the success of the Victus NOX mission. So as a review, this was a U.S. Space Force mission looking at their responsive launch capabilities. So they had contracted with Millennium Space for a satellite bus and Firefly Aerospace for the launch services. And the whole idea of the mission is how quickly you can get from notification from the Space Force to fully launch integration for a satellite bus on top of a rocket, to actually launching into orbit, to fully operational satellite in orbit. And they tested it for the first time in September, and it was -- or I guess, yeah, the end of August/early September, and it was just a resounding success.

>> Maria Varmazis: That's a very good nomination for best of 2023. I think that's a -- kudos. That's a very good one, because that was fast. How fast did they turn that around, like 24 or 48 hours?

>> Brandon Karpf: Well, yeah, yeah. So I mean, it was two components, right? It was first notification to Millennium to transport the satellite itself to the launch provider. And so, that, between notification, prepping the satellite for transportation, and actually getting it to the launchpad was 58 hours, which is incredible.

>> Alice Carruth: It is pretty impressive.

>> Brandon Karpf: Yeah, it was -- I believe -- I don't have the exact number here, but I believe it was over 100 miles to tran- -- like 120 something miles transportation, maybe 160, but either way, I mean 58 hours from notification to moving the satellite to the launchpad, and then, once it was at the launchpad, it was 27 hours between then and launch. So integrating the satellite on top of the rocket, to actually achieving a launch window, to getting the thing launched, I mean, it was just --

>> Maria Varmazis: Blazing fast. So I guess we'll see if they do it again this year in 2024. I'm going to be curious to see if that happens.

>> Brandon Karpf: I certainly hope so. I hope to see another, you know, test case. You know, this -- this capability really matters, all right? I mean, the entire government, military, is reliant on satellite services today. Everything that all four services do, Space Force, of course, supports. But Space Force also needs the ability to support in a denied environment. So you think about all the satellites required to operate the joint force across the military. This provides a backstop in case something happens to the satellites that are being relied upon.

>> Maria Varmazis: Yeah, it's it is. It is truly amazing. All right, that's a great nomination, so good one. All right, Alice, you're next. What's your nomination for 2023?

>> Alice Carruth: So I had to go international, didn't I? It's Chandaryaan 3.

>> Maria Varmazis: Aye!

>> Alice Carruth: I think what India managed to do with that lunar landing mission was just incredible. The cost of it was really impressive, what they were able to do on such a minimal budget, and the fact that they did do a soft landing. Now, obviously it didn't quite succeed. They did lose the signal after the first lunar night, which is, you know, they were expecting that. So I like to say that, you know, that's exactly what their mission objective was supposed to be anyway, but the fact that it's still going. So the, you know, Chandaryaan 3 is multiple of components. It's the lander module, the propulsion module, and then the rover, and that propulsion module has been brought back to Earth's orbit. So even though the mission went up in August, and it took a while to get up to the moon and do lunar orbit, they then brought it back down to the Earth, and it's still working. To me, that's the mission that just keeps giving.

>> Maria Varmazis: You know, they learned from Chandaryaan 2. Turned that around so fast, and then, to have the success they had this year, that was such a thrilling moment to watch, too, just to see that success and everyone celebrating. It was really beautiful. I loved that. That was a great moment.

>> Alice Carruth: I think so, too, and such a great way of showing that space is more than just the U.S., you know? You know, we're all guilty of it. The U.S. has obviously been a leader in space for such a long time, but there's so much going on around the world, and I think, all of a sudden, we were paying attention to what was happening in Asia and in Europe, as well. So it's exciting to see that this development isn't just a one-country thing now. That we have another country that's now a superpower that's able to go to the moon. That's a huge accomplishment.

>> Brandon Karpf: And not just go to the moon, but also, do it way more cost effectively than any other nation that's ever done it before. I mean, to me that's the -- I mean, yes. The science has been incredible. The operations have been incredible. What they've been able to do with the -- with the bus after the mission was technically complete, incredible. I mean, really impressive work from ISRO, but to me, the most impressive thing was the cost, how much they got done per dollar, right? I mean, it's just they stretched that budget further than any space program around the world has ever been able to stretch a budget. And I mean that's -- that's a lesson that can be learned by all the other nations, space-faring nations.

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah, NASA, pay attention.

>> Maria Varmazis: Yeah, yeah, for real. The meme that was sort of going around about that was that it was cheaper than Christopher Nolan's movie "Interstellar" was like -- like it just sort of encapsulated that so well. Like it's cheaper than a movie to actually go to the moon. So well done, ISRO. That's not a small deal either.

>> Alice Carruth: So go on then, Maria. What's your nomination?

>> Maria Varmazis: All right. You knew I was going to be basic. So I'm going to be real basic, and I'm just psyched about Starship. Can I be excited about that?

>> Alice Carruth: Of course.

>> Maria Varmazis: You know, I'm not an Elon Musk fangirl, but SpaceX's Starship is genuinely super exciting. The two tests they had this year were probably the only events I can think of, aside from ISRO's landing on the moon, that broke through sort of the space nerd bubble into sort of the general public being excited about something that's going on in space. And to me, that's -- that is a bit of my litmus test of if like the normies are really excited about space. You know, what are -- what kind of events are people taking their kids out of school to go watch? And it's the Starship launch. So, you know, how that played out in the more mainstream press about, oh, but it didn't quite succeed. So this is a total boondoggle. That's a shame, and I hope that we can help correct that narrative. But I think it's just amazing to see how much they learned with each test flight and how far they've gotten. And we all know the potential for Starship once it gets up and running is going to be amazing. And it's been so thrilling to watch that go. So, I mean, it's basic, but dang. Starship for me is my easy win.

>> Alice Carruth: It's not basic, though. We all know that when it is operational, it's going to change the industry. I mean, at the moment they're taking up like 20 to 25 satellites at a time. This is going to go up to 200 satellites at time.

>> Maria Varmazis: Yeah.

>> Alice Carruth: I mean, what a huge difference that's going to make to the industry. So yeah, no, I don't think it's basic. I really do think it's the obvious one, and one of us had to pick it. So I'm glad you did, Maria.

>> Maria Varmazis: I'll own it. I'm just going to own -- I'm like I'll be basic; it's fine.

>> Brandon Karpf: Yeah, when you when you talk about a, you know, a multi-order of magnitude decrease in cost per kilogram with that capability, yeah. I mean, it's fundamentally going to change the entire industry and other industries, not just the space industry. So totally agree. I remember April 20th, being at Space Symposium. The whole thing shut down while everyone there watched that first test. You could hear a pin drop while everyone was just watching that. So totally agree that is, without a doubt, one of the top stories from the year.

>> Maria Varmazis: Yeah, it's an easy one, but yeah, somebody had to say it. So I went for that one. All right, all right, so that was the year that was. Twenty-twenty-four, though, there is a lot planned for this year. Obviously, timelines may shift, but going by what we assume is going to happen with the timelines that have been announced thus far, Brandon, why don't we go in the same order? Brandon, what are you excited for this coming year?

>> Brandon Karpf: Sure. So this was a little bit more difficult, you know? Looking forward to the year, I was tempted to kind of dig into policy that there's a lot of policy recommendations coming from the White House, from the National Space Council. You know, who is responsible for various aspects of regulatory approvals, launch approvals, et cetera? Kind of balancing the responsibilities between FCC and FAA, but at the end of the day, I went back to my home, the thing I'm most comfortable with, and it's military space is what --

>> Maria Varmazis: That's legit.

>> Brandon Karpf: It's just neat, and basically, what I'm interested in looking and hearing more about was just this past November, the Space Development Agency, for the first time, tested what's called Link 16 connectivity directly from low Earth orbit, and it might seem a little niche. It might seem not that important, but I want to kind of describe to the audience why this is so important, why this is such a big deal. And Link 16 is what's called a tactical data link. So Link 16 is how various military assets communicate to each other and specifically communicate situational awareness information. So for example, if I'm on a ship, and I'm looking at a whole bunch of other ships around me, and I've marked where they are on a chart. And I know their course and speed and what they're doing and, potentially, who they are as ships, I can share that information with other assets around me through Link 16 and other tactical data links. Now for the very first time, the Space Development Agency tested Link 16 directly from satellite. So what that means is you've taken what is typically just a line-of-sight data link between military assets, and you've made it over the horizon. And the other unique thing about tactical data links like Link 16, in particular, is that it is targeting quality data. So typically, what's going across here are things that can be used in firing solutions for various weapon systems because the data is -- and the geolocation information is accurate and validated by other assets. And so, what this means is in this whole transport layer of the space development agencies' proliferated warfare -- warfighter space architecture that's enabling this paradigm called sensor to shooter, which is for military assets around the world, wherever there is a sensor, even if the shooter is over the horizon from that sensor, the person actually engaging a target, or an adversary, we can actually get that data to the shooter and give them targeting quality data even over the horizon, potentially. I mean, this is a huge capability. Once this is demonstrated beyond just the test case, but actually becomes a standard part of military operations, this is going to change the game and really, really put pressure on our adversaries. The other important thing with Link 16 is it's a coalition data link. So our coalition partners in NATO, Japan, they all use these. All the Five Eyes nations, whether it's, you know, Australia, U.K., Canada, they all use tactical data links like Link 16. And so, this is really creating an incredible capability for our warfighters that, over the next year, we should see them testing even more and really validating the use cases in real military exercises, which should be fantastic capability for the warfighter.

>> Maria Varmazis: That's a great nomination, honestly. That is a -- that is a game changer.

>> Alice Carruth: And so sensible of you, Brandon. There is so much coming up, and you are with the sensible one. Can we just point that out?

>> Maria Varmazis: That's a good one, too. I mean, as military space goes, eventually, everything else follows, too. So I'm always like, that's cool. I wonder how else we can use something like that.

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah, yeah.

>> Brandon Karpf: Brilliant, brilliance.

>> Maria Varmazis: Yes, that is really neat, but yeah, it'll be interesting to follow the updates from that, such as we can learn them, next year. So that'll be -- that'll be very cool. All right, Alice, what's your nomination for the coming year?

>> Alice Carruth: Oh, it's so tough because I really want to go with the commercial lunar landers, but part of me feels like it's not going happen. So it's awful to say, sorry. Well, it's spicy. Look, hey, look, we all know how difficult it is to get to the moon, and this is the first lot. So the chances of them making it are pretty slim, and I think they're aware of that. So I'm not trying to be spicy; I'm just being pragmatic. They're going to learn from it, and it might well be that they can go again by the end of the year. But I'm just saying that. Okay, so as I'm -- as, that's my thought. Oh, sorry. I'm so sorry. I'm hoping I'm not wishing any or --

>> Brandon Karpf: Not that I'm a totally, you know, a savvy investor, but I've got a whole $200 of Intuitive Machines stock.

>> Maria Varmazis: You're right, Brandon. You're right.

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah, yeah, a whole $200.

>> Brandon Karpf: I'm hoping you're wrong.

>> Alice Carruth: Well, I think for $200, Brandon, I think I might be right. So put that aside, and I do think they're going to be great, and I think they're going be important. I think for me, because I'm British, it's the fact that the U.K. has had its license this year, and it's going to start looking at doing licensing and launching from the U.K., and it's not just the U.K. that's going to benefit from that. It's Europe because at the moment --

>> Maria Varmazis: For SaxaVord, right?

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah, SaxaVord just got their license. Obviously, they had their horizontal license in January from Cornwall. So all of a sudden, it's going to open up a whole new opportunity of launching, not just from the U.K., but also from Europe. And you know, with companies like PLD developing in Spain, obviously, HyImpuluse in Germany that's going to launching out of SaxaVord, it's not just a U.K. thing. It's going to really open up the market to the Europeans. So I'm super excited to start seeing launches going from my home soil. So that, to me, is my big 2024. And I, yeah, big up to HyImpulse and Skyrora, who we have spoken to the show, and hopefully, are going to launch this year.

>> Maria Varmazis: I hope we get a nice little chance to go out there and watch one ourselves. That would be -- I'm just manifesting that into the universe. Make that happen. We would all love to --

>> Alice Carruth: Wouldn't that be amazing?

>> Maria Varmazis: That would be amazing, especially to check out that distillery that they have on SaxaVord's campus. I'd love to do that.

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah, yeah.

>> Brandon Karpf: Yeah, Frank really promoted the distillery as much as he did their launch capabilities.

>> Maria Varmazis: I mean, I'll be there with bells on honestly.

>> Alice Carruth: It's very British of us. I can't help it, but you know, you've got to have a bit of a quick -- a quick shot to celebrate the successes. So you know, I don't blame them for having a distillery on site. So Maria, what is your selection for 2024? Are you going basic again?

>> Maria Varmazis: I -- you know I am. I'm so basic. I mean, honestly, my nomination -- can my nomination just be the moon?

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah.

>> Maria Varmazis: I mean, honestly, there's so much stuff going on with the moon next year, whether or not it fails. So, and you got all spicy on me, Alice. I'm like, that's true. Intuitive machines may or may succeed. I mean that's space for you.

>> Alice Carruth: They're just one of many that are going up. There's Astrobotic, as well. So, you know, there is a lot. There's a good chance that one of them is going to make it.

>> Maria Varmazis: One, I bet at least one of them, at least one of them will. I bet at least one of them, at least one of them will. So Intuitive Machines, definitely, I'm fingers crossed for them. Ispace of Japan --

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah.

>> Maria Varmazis: -- they're still saying that they're going to go for a late 2024 (again, fingers crossed) reattempt for a soft lunar landing. So I really -- if we see a private company land on the Moon in 2024, again, I'm just thinking big picture, is that going to capture people's attention like oh, it's not just nation states doing moon stuff. It's also companies now. That will be a big, I think, a big paradigm shift in terms of how people understand space. So that could be huge. Or it might not be. Maybe nobody will care. We'll -- I guess we'll see. But there's just so much stuff going on with the moon next year. There's also China's going to do a lunar sample return from the far side of the moon, and then Artemis 2. I mean --

>> Alice Carruth: If it launches. I'm sorry. Oh gosh, I'm being really spicy now, but you know, we all know that it's going to end up being pushed back a little bit. At the moment, it's November. It might be December. Honestly, it might be early 2025.

>> Brandon Karpf: Another Christmas launch for Artemis?

>> Maria Varmazis: Another Christmas launch, maybe. It could be, but they're still saying 2024. So technically, we're just going for that. Yeah, I know it's basic but, I mean, Artemis 2.

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah, no. It will be amazing to have, you know, a first woman to actually leave low Earth orbit, as well. You know? Big up to the ladies on that one.

>> Maria Varmazis: Just returning humans to the orbit of the moon after all these decades.

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah.

>> Maria Varmazis: I mean, that has never happened in my lifetime, in any of our lifetimes. So I'm just putting that out there. Like that's huge.

>> Brandon Karpf: It is. It is huge. So moon stuff 2024.

>> Maria Varmazis: Moon stuff 2024, that's going be my T-shirt that I'll be wearing in January, moon stuff 2024.

>> Alice Carruth: Somebody needs to make that for you. We can wear it to like Space Symposium, Moon stuff 2024.

>> Maria Varmazis: Moon stuff 2024.

>> Alice Carruth: It just covers everything, yeah.

>> Brandon Karpf: Put in your pre-orders now at space.n2k.com.

>> Maria Varmazis: It's our merch, moon stuff 2024. Well, Brandon and Alice, thank you so much for your look back and look ahead. Happy New year. It's been a blast, and we'll see you next year.

>> Brandon Karpf: See you next year.

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>> Maria Varmazis: We'll be right back.

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And welcome back. And are you even a space show in the Christmas season, if you don't mention the Santa tracker or two? For anyone whose little elves are counting the number of sleeps until the 25th, you can. Always use the OGO Santa Trackers from NORAD over at noradsanta.org. Or if you have Flightradar24 bookmarked, they've got their eyes on Chris Kringle, as well. Just search for Santa1, HOHOHO, or R3DNO53, which is red nose, anytime after 1900 UTC on December 23rd.

>> Alice Carruth: I'll be doing that.

>> Maria Varmazis: Happy holidays.

>> Alice Carruth: Yeah.

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>> Alice Carruth: For additional resources from today's report, check out our show notes at space.n2k.com. Now next week, we will be publishing some of our radio shows that feature collections of the best interviews that we've had since we launched in April. So do join us for that, and we'd love to know what you think of this podcast. You can e-mail us at space@n2k.com or submit the survey in the show notes. Your feedback ensures we deliver the information that keeps you a step ahead in the rapidly changing space industry. We're privileged that N2K and podcasts like ours are part of the daily routine of many of the most influential leaders and operators in the public and private sector, from the Fortune 500 to many of the world's preeminent intelligence and law enforcement agencies.

>> Maria Varmazis: N2K's strategic workforce intelligence optimizes the value of your biggest investment, your people. We make you smarter about your team, while making your team smarter. Learn more at n2k.com. This episode was produced by Alice Carruth. Mixing by Elliott Peltzman and Trey Hester, with original music and sound design by Elliott Peltzman. Our executive producer is Jen Iben. Our VP is Brandon Karpf, and I'm Maria Varmazis. Thank you for listening. Have a wonderful holiday season, and all of our best wishes in the new year. Health and happiness to you and yours from me at Astra, and see you in 2024.

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