It is New Year's Eve, a time for out with the old and with the new. So Alice and I thought we'd better give you our take on the space events from 2024 and take a look at what we can expect in 2025. It is December 31st, 2024. Last time I say that year, I'm Maria Vermazus and this is our year-end T-minus. And joining me today for this special edition, not our daily but our yearly retrospective, that is, is our very own producer of all things T-minus, Alice Caruth. Welcome Alice, welcome, welcome. Thanks Maria. All right, so Alice, let's start off with thoughts on the year that was. And I have some suspicions about what your picks might be, but I really want to hear. What's the top of your best of for 2024 in space? You know, every year we do this, we did this, well, I said every year. This is our second year of doing this. Second year? Second year, every year. And you know, it's getting tougher and tougher. Last year was quite obvious. This year is like, oh my gosh, where do you even start? 2024 has been amazing. But I'm going to have to go with it. It's got to be the chopsticks or hail the mechazilla because you know, I don't think I'm... Yeah, yeah. It was just an epic, epic thing. And if you don't know what I'm talking about, where have you been this last year? Because watching that Starship 5th Flight and watching them capture that booster with those chopsticks was just an engineering feat that you... I just don't know that anybody was prepared for this, but especially because it was their first try. SpaceX are the king when it comes to this. You know, everybody else tries things, fails and knows it's okay to fail and learns and starts again. SpaceX somehow pulls it off first time almost every time and it's almost to the point of frustrating to watch from anybody else. No, can't you just do something wrong for a change? Be human. Be human, exactly. I mean, the people over there are just incredible and all credit to the teams that have thought this through, that engineered this, that made this happen because capturing a booster like that, wow, wow is all I can say. Yeah. Because it was just incredible. And you know, obviously they didn't do it in Flight 6, so I'm assuming there were a few little technical hitches with it, maybe didn't go quite to plan, but from a viewer's perspective, it looked epic. It was amazing. Yeah. I jumped up and down like a toddler at Christmas. So you know, it was perfect. I think we all did. You have no soul if you didn't, Ty. No, exactly. And you know, it was tough because you know I've talked about this. There are so many incredible things that happened this year and I assume that you've picked one that would have been my second choice, so Maria Ghosn, what was 2024's highlight for you? Yeah. Honestly, I mean, that is, I mean, Mechazilla is like, it has to be everybody's top pick because that's going to be on the cover of textbooks for engineering classes for decades, if not centuries now. Like, it's up there with the absolute fantastic accomplishments of mankind. It's just absolutely insane. So it's like, okay, well, I can't pick that. So what am I going to go with? And there were a lot of contenders, but I had to go, I'm cheering on Clips and honestly, intuitive machines, getting Odie on the moon. I mean, yeah, tipped, but still, it's soft landing on the moon. That made me feel so patriotic. Just being like, heck yeah, America's back on the moon. I just, I felt it. I've never, you and I both, we've never been alive when America has been on the moon. So this was just, it felt really amazing to finally be alive for America going back to the moon after hearing about it my whole life. So for me, it was very emotional. I was watching it with my daughter and my husband and we were like, oh my God. And it's just, it was so great to see. And it just made me hope that maybe we'll have more successes. I don't want to get ahead of myself that we'll have more successes in 2025. I will say I didn't react as largely as I did for Mechazilla. So it's a close second. Yeah. Yeah. It was a toss up between the two for me as well. I have to admit because you're right. It's the first time we've seen anything, an American company go back to the moon or it's the first commercial company to ever land on the moon full stop. Yeah. The first time America has sent a spacecraft to the moon since the 1970s. Wow. It was an incredible thing. And I have to say, 2024 when I was looking forward when we had our last year's year and year round up, it was a little bit harsh. Yeah. A little wainswell moment there. A little bit harsh. I did say I didn't think it was going to happen. And I was correct about the first one. You were. Because again, it's so difficult and space as we always can cliche say. It's hard. We expect things to not always go to plan and then learn from it and grow from it. That's where you know that SpaceX exception always comes in. But intuitive machines, man. They pulled it out of the bag and wow, wow, wow. What an accomplishment. And again. It was a huge kudos to them. Yeah. And honestly, what a validation for clips too as a program. I think if there was any doubt that that was a good idea, I am one just proved it. And so I'm really hopeful for 2025. We'll have more of that, but just congrats to clips and intuitive machines. Honestly, I think it was just fantastic. Okay. So favorite things from 2024 feels like the easiest part of this whole thing. Now I get to be Ms. Debbie Downer and ask what are least favorite things from the year where this is sort of a harder question to answer, but I'm very curious, Alice, where you land on this one. Actually I found this one easiest. Oh no. Isn't that crazy? Well, because there has been my bugbear this year and it was even turned up in the news when I was looking just before Christmas talking about what's going on in the ISS. It's the word stranded astronauts. Oh, yes. Or the term, should I say? It has been driving me insane. Like we all know that things didn't go to plan with the Starliner. And honestly, I think a lot of it was that NASA and Boeing did a terrible job with communications, which is a really rare thing when it comes to NASA. Normally they nail it and they do an incredible work. So I'm not sure what happened with this one. Things don't always go to plan. Things do go wrong. They had great contingencies, but the messaging that got out in the mass media particularly, but I saw it in space news as well. It was wrong. This idea of them being stranded, being stuck in space, it just felt massively overhacked. It's the only thing I can think of it as term. And I just thought they could have done a far better job of explaining the whole situation running up to the test flight and why they made their decision not to bring them back down and why things are happening now. Now, of course, their flight has been extended again, which is why we're seeing the term stranded astronauts all over again. But it has been my biggest bugbearer of 2024 is poor communications, which just goes to show how important marketing is, which is our big thing for you and I, both from marketing backgrounds, how important that messaging is, how important the storytelling is, but also explaining the situation. I don't think people are that dumb. I think they understand the whole term of test flights and things. This is the contingency. This is why we're going to do this. Human life is just not worth putting at risk. They obviously made the right decision, even though Starliner came back down without any issues. But yeah, the stranded astronaut term has been my bugbear for 2024. What about you? That's a good one. Yeah, no, that is a great one, honestly, that word. And I agree with you. It's poor communication and I don't know, even when the astronauts would say things like, "Hey, we're not stranded," and people would go, "Yeah, yeah, yeah," and it would almost make it worse. It was almost like people were sort of looking for a reason not to believe them and, you know, "Okay, one can be really cynical and say maybe they're just saying that," but I choose not to believe that. Maybe I'm being a polyana yet again, but yeah, I agree with you. It just seems almost me-inspirited. I don't know. I don't like it. So speaking of me-inspirited, my least favorite thing I have to say is the almost adversarial nature of what has been going on between environmental reviews, the FAA and SpaceX, specifically in Pocotica, that watching that happen and just basically escalating throughout the year, not pointing fingers at any one entity. It's just one of those like, "I don't like where this is going. It is not going to get better next year." And it just makes me wonder who's looking out for the safety of people. Does anyone really care? Is the Fox going to be guarding the henhouse next year and onwards? It just makes me nervous. So I just don't like seeing that happen. Yeah, I do get it. I do. But having worked with the FAA when I was at the space ports before, they are very, very, very key. Everything is all about safety first for them. I can't imagine unless they really shake things up, which is obviously a huge possibility and I can see that's what you're saying with the concern. Yeah. Yeah, the right people there at the moment, I just hope that they continue to be listened to and put that safety first. Yeah, maybe I'm being a little too indirect. My worries are not with the FAA. Just to clarify, I think the FAA is doing the best job under very challenging circumstances and I know that a lot of SpaceX fanboys and girls love to hate them and they can at me as much as they want on that. I don't regret saying that. It makes me really nervous to see the adversarial nature of two entities that I think should be cooperating. So I don't like it. I don't like it and that's my least favorite thing I've seen this year and I'm really hoping it improves next year in a responsible way and not a "we shut them up" kind of way. Fingers crossed. Fingers crossed on that. [Music] Now that we've reviewed the year, that was "We Should Take a Look at 2025" but first. Hey T-Minus Crew, if you are just joining us, be sure to follow T-Minus Space Daily in your favorite podcast app. Also if you could do us a favor, share the intel with your friends and coworkers. So here is a little challenge for you. By Friday when you're back in the office, please show three friends or coworkers this podcast. A growing audience is the most important thing for us and we would love your help as part of the T-Minus Crew. So if you find T-Minus useful, please share to other professionals like you can find the show. Thank you everybody. It means a lot to all of us here at T-Minus. [Music] And you'll be right back. [Music] Welcome back. Okay, obligatory. As we start the new year, what are we looking forward to in the year? What are our predictions? This is a free space. Go on and riff house. I want to know, what are you thinking for this coming year? So again, I went back to my "Let's Look Ahead" 2024 thing from last year and I was like, "Hey, I love that we need some Wainsworld music coming in there." I thought it was going to be a European space flight. It was going to be the year of seeing a flight from the UK and that didn't happen. And I've gotten to a point now where I'm like, "I'm not sure how it's going to happen moving forward." Orbex has now moved over to Saxford and obviously Saxford had a bit of a setback with RFA and their explosion in the fall. So I'm not sure I wanted to pick that one, but I am still very much looking forward to it when it happens and I do hope I'm there. So I thought really long and hard about this and I came up with the word competition. Here's what I'm looking forward to in 2025. I think space thrives when there is a good competition out there. And that's not to say I want them in fighting or anything like that. I just think the whole industry benefits when there are multiple launch opportunities. So I think for 2025, my big thing is going to be seeing New Glenn, which hopefully is already taken off by this point because we are recording this before December the 30th. So fingers crossed, things will go well for them by the end of the year, if not early 2025. But also Neutron as well. I think Rocket Lab have got a really good proposal with Neutron. So I'm looking forward to seeing that. And then there's the competition about what's going to happen on the moon. So I'm sure that's going to probably tee you up nicely because I'm guessing you're going to go with another lunar theme for 2025. Maybe, maybe, maybe not. You'll see. Go on then. What is it? What is your prediction or what is it you're most looking forward to in this year? So I have three. Two are short, one is longer. Okay. So my word for one of my short ones actually consolidation. I have maybe a more negative view of what's going, but maybe actually kind of dovetails nicely into the competition side of things. I think we're going to continue to see some consolidation of what's going on in the space industry, some tightening up. I think we're going to see somewhere small launch providers getting squeezed out. Unfortunately, I'm honestly very nervous for some guys. I'm not naming names. I'm just, I'm nervous. So I don't want to see it happen, but I think it's going to. So I, unfortunately, that's part of my prediction. My small prediction number two based on absolutely nothing but vibes. This is completely just like, why not? India is already in the Artemis Accords and I predict in 2025 it will sign on with the ILRS as well. This is based on no information besides just me just guessing. I think it would be amazing if India decides to be part of both. And I could see India doing that because they're doing amazing. So why the heck not? Play both games. It's competition. It goes back to my competition. There's nothing wrong with that. That's right. It's true. So here's my long, here's my long one. Looking ahead to the second Trump administration, very likely we'll have Jared Isaacman as head of NASA. I don't, I mean, I hope he becomes the next NASA administrator. I think it's going to happen. And also with Elon Musk playing such a huge role in the next Trump administration. I think we're going to see a bigger discussion out in the open instead of whispered behind the scenes about acceptable risk for space missions where human lives are involved, which is a conversation that a lot of people are having and they don't want to have it out loud. But I think Isaacman and Musk are the two people that are going to bring it to the floor. And of course, I'm not wishing for anyone to be harmed. I really do not want that to happen. I think just with the cadence of missions that are occurring with more and more people on these missions, something is going to happen. And I think also given Isaacman and Musk's vocal frustration with the pace of things, especially from NASA, there's going to be a much more vocal conversation about how much risk are we willing to allow, how much are we willing to slow things down in terms of for the sake of progress versus the sake of safety? I'm not coming down on a side on this. I just think we're going to have that conversation. So I've just been hearing it whispered for two years behind the scenes. And I think it's finally going to be coming to the forefront. It's been whispered about for a very long time. If you look at the whole commercial space risk that's been going on with both the New Shepherd and Virgin Galactics spaceship as well. So yeah, I do think you're onto something. And I think it'll be really interesting to hear what people's thoughts are about that. I think there's going to be a whole big shake up full stop when it comes to it. There always is. There has to be. There's nature as politics. When you're bringing in a new administration, they're going to have a certain change, a pivot of what they think works and what they don't. I do think Jared Isaacman will be an incredible administrator because he is a big fan of science and NASA science programs. So hopefully we might see a bit more funding towards those that might not necessarily be the sexiest of things that go on over at JPL. For example, like the Mars sample mission program, maybe they might get some extra funding and keep going. Maybe Hubble will be maybe. Maybe we'll just please sending out the two users. Yeah, that would be incredible as well. I mean, that's where I think it's going to be really exciting. When you're right, he's a massive supporter of human spaceflight and progress. And hopefully we'll trim things down. We all know that these programs overspend. Anybody who's worked in the federal government or even state level government knows that they are their own worst enemies. A lot of it is to do with checks and balances, but sometimes they over egg those checks and balances for the sake of making sure they're protecting themselves. So I do think it's going to be interesting to see the shake up when this new administration comes in and moves things around. But I also think it's going to be really exciting is having the likes of Elon Musk involved in this administration is they're going to bring space to the forefront. We still know from our friends and family that space is not talked about enough in the public. People still don't understand why space is important to them. So hopefully having someone like Musk at the forefront and having someone like Jared Isaacman who's been to space being part of the administration. And yes, I know Bill Nelson was as well. Slightly truer than he was a politician turned one, you know, round the other way around. So maybe I'm just excited to see where this goes. I think 2025 is going to be a really exciting year. I think so too. Either coming in with a very disruptive and I mean that in like the tech world like sense of disruption point of view with Elon being so divisive. I hope that it's not a double edged sword with space becoming in the forefront, but we'll see. We shall see. It is definitely going to be exciting next year. So happy new year, Alice. I hope it's a happy, healthy and wonderful one for all of us and for you especially. It's been a joy working with you and may continue on into the next year and onwards. Absolutely. And we're going to be shaking things up in 2025, possibly some new format changes, possibly some new segments. Well, definitely some new segments coming in starting in February. So if people who are listening have ideas of what they want to hear, how they want to see things going in 2025, please, please, please. We genuinely mean it when we ask people to reach out to us and give us feedback because it's the only way we're going to learn. So please email us space@n2k.com and send us your suggestions as we're starting to switch things around and mix things up here at T-minus. All right. So that is it for T-minus for December 31st, 2024. Talk to you by N2K Cyberwire. For additional resources from today's report, check out our show notes at space.n2k.com. We're privileged that N2K and podcasts like T-minus are part of the daily routine of many of the most influential leaders and operators in the public and private sector, from the Fortune 500 to many of the world's preeminent intelligence and law enforcement agencies. This episode was produced by Alice Carruth. Our associate producer is Liz Stokes. We're mixed by Elliot Peltzman and Tre Hester with original music by Elliot Peltzman. Our executive producer is Jennifer Eiben. Our executive editor is Brandon Karpf. Simone Petrella is our president. Peter Kilpie is our publisher. And I am your host, Maria Varmazis. Thanks for listening. Have a happy and healthy new year. [ Music ] T-minus. [ Background Sounds ] [BLANK_AUDIO]
