China says it’ll land humans on the Moon by 2030.

Today is October 30, 2025. I'm Maria Varmazis, and this is T-minus. [MUSIC PLAYING] T-minus. 22nd to LOS, T-dris. Open aboard. [INAUDIBLE] [MUSIC PLAYING] [INAUDIBLE] Five. Harmon Space and Defense has acquired five Axis industries for $83 million in cash and approximately $5 million of Carmen Common shares. The UK Space Agency to receive almost 2.8 billion pounds over the next five years for science and technology research and development. Japan's Axle Space Corporation has signed agreements with governmental organizations from Ghana and Kenya to support Earth observation data usage. STC Group has committed to a prepayment of $175 million for future services from AST Space Mobile. One. China says that it is on course to land astronauts on the moon by 2030. [INAUDIBLE] [MUSIC PLAYING] Lift off. [MUSIC PLAYING] Today, Torsen Kreening will be joining us later in the show with the latest from the European Space Policy Institute event in Vienna. And we'll be sharing my monthly catch up with Greg Gillinger from Integrity ISR. Greg and I will be chatting about all the happenings with Chinese and Russian satellites in orbit and what we can learn from their movements. So stick around for more on that after today's headlines. [MUSIC PLAYING] Happy Thursday, everybody. Thank you for joining me. We're kicking off today's show with some news from China. So let's dive in. And China says that it is holding firm to its goal of landing astronauts on the moon by 2030 and has outlined a schedule of development and testing for its ambitious crewed lunar program. The China Manned Space Agency held a press conference to outline a series of upcoming tests to include integrated testing for the Lan Yue Lunar lander thermal tests and maximum dynamic pressure escape tests for the Mengzhou Manned Spacecraft and low altitude and technology verification flights for the Long March 10 carrier rocket. CMSA used the conference to announce the next crew heading to the Tiangong Space Station. Taikonauts Zhang Lu, Wu Fei, and Zhang Hongzhang will carry out the Shenzhou 21 crewed space flight mission. The crew is due to launch on Friday from the Jutuan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China. The space agency also used the press conference to announce that two Pakistani astronauts will undergo training alongside Chinese Taikonauts, and one of them will be selected to participate in a short duration space flight mission as a payload specialist. The selection process for Pakistani astronauts officially commenced following a cooperation agreement between China and Pakistan signed in February this year. Moving on to our next story now, AST Space Mobile and STC Group have signed a 10-year commercial agreement to enable direct-to-device satellite mobile connectivity across Saudi Arabia and key regional markets. As part of this agreement, STC has committed to a prepayment of $175 million for future services and made a long-term commercial revenue commitment. AST Space Mobile will integrate its space-based cellular broadband connectivity with STC's terrestrial infrastructure to expand mobile coverage across Saudi Arabia, as well as in select countries in the Middle East and Africa. The partnership aims to eliminate connectivity gaps by delivering 5G and 4G LTE services direct to standard mobile phones without the need of any specialized software or device support or updates for consumers, enterprises, and government sectors, all ensuring seamless voice and broadband access. Japan's AST Corporation has signed two memorandums of understanding with governmental organizations from Ghana and Kenya. The MOUs provide terms for cooperation on addressing social challenges through the use of satellite-based Earth observation data. And with the signing of these MOUs, AST says it will begin full-scale development and implementation of solutions that are tailored to local needs through collaboration with local partners in emerging countries, including those in Africa. Each partnership aims to identify social issues that need to be resolved and develop and implement solutions that combine EOData with local information, all to create a new market for the use of EOData. We're hopping all over the world today. Now we're going to the UK. And the UK Department for Science, Innovation, and Technology, also known as DSIT, has announced its largest ever investment in science and technology research and development, with the UK Space Agency receiving almost 2.8 billion pounds over the next five years. DSIT says it has a central role in delivering the British government's agenda with long-term economic growth dependent on strong innovation and R&D. They say that the public investment in R&D generates significant benefits for the UK, with each pound of public R&D investment estimated to leverage, on average, two pounds of private R&D investment and generate eight pounds of net benefits in the long run. And Carmen Space and Defense has acquired Five Access Industries for $83 million in cash and approximately $5 million of Carmen common shares. Five Access produces engineered products for commercial space engines, which includes spun-form nozzles, gaseous oxygen systems, and fluid control technologies. Carmen says the acquisition strengthens the company's core competency in the engineering and manufacturing of mission-control subsystems for the space market. On October 24, Carmen increased the size of its existing $375 million Term Loan B to $505 million, primarily to fund the acquisition of Five Access and pay off its revolving credit facility. [MUSIC PLAYING] And that wraps up today's top five stories for you, friends. Stick around to learn more about what Chinese and Russian satellites are doing in orbit. But before we get to all that, N2K's senior producer, Alice Carruth, joins me now with a look at the other stories that are making the headlines today. Alice? Maria, we've included two additional links in today's selected reading section of the show notes. They cover Colorado's bid to sue US President Trump over his decision to move Space Command and Elphi Harris technology's third quarter financial results. A lot of people are listening to podcasts through YouTube. And if that is the way that you would prefer to listen to this show, well, good news, everyone. T-Minus Space Daily is indeed on YouTube. And we post our episodes there along with video clips from interviews and events throughout the year. So if you're dual screening at work and keep the YouTube player going all day while your head's down, listen, I get it, not judging. @N2Kcyber is our company's YouTube channel. And you will find the T-Minus Space Daily playlist right in there, along with all the other shows that we make here at N2K. Again, you'll find us at N2Kcyber on YouTube. [MUSIC PLAYING] I recently got to catch up with my friend and friend of the show, Greg Gillinger, SVP for strategy and development at Integrity ISR to find out the latest on what's maneuvering in orbit. [MUSIC PLAYING] The first launch I want to talk about actually hasn't happened yet. And it involves a Chinese commercial space company. I have quoted the commercial space company. But it's a company called LandSpace. And they appear to be ready to test launch what they call their Zhukai 3 rocket. And the interesting thing about this, it's got nine engines, very similar to a Falcon 9. And also, they're going to try and land the booster after they launch this particular rocket. They've done a couple of test firings of the engines. The rocket with a payload-- maybe I don't even know if it's a real payload or not-- but it's been integrated. So it's standing on the launch pad in Northwest China right now. And they've announced they're going to try and launch this thing and recover the booster no earlier than the 3rd of November, so early next week. So we've got our eyes and ears tuned in for that for sure. Is that the answer to the Falcon 9? Is that the idea of the rough equivalent there? It's not as capable as the Falcon 9, but as nearly as capable. So in terms of what they've advertised in terms of lift capacity, it's about 80% of what the Falcon 9 is able to do. Unlike the Falcon 9, it uses methane plus liquid oxygen for a fuel, which is a little bit cleaner burning fuel. LandSpace is actually the first company to launch into orbit using Methilox. That's the new fuel type there. Your listeners are probably familiar. New Glenn uses Methilox as well as Starship. So this company, LandSpace, has really been pioneering in that arena as well. So we'll see if they're able to get this thing off the ground and then bring back the first phase of it successfully. That'll be important for China in terms of reducing-- increasing its launch cadence, the ability to get mass to orbit, as well as decreasing launch costs as similar revolution we've seen here because of the Falcon 9. And over the last couple of weeks, they had two additional launches of their Guo Wang constellation. This is often referred to as the Chinese version of Starlink. Although I think it's going to have more capabilities than what Starlink currently possesses, at least once that we talk about. So they were able to place-- one launch placed five satellites into orbit. They've got two primary orbital planes that they're using, or two primary inclinations, I should say. So the first launch went up to an 86 and 1/2 degree inclination, carrying five satellites. And then that was their group 11. And then they also launched something called-- well, they're calling group 12, which is nine satellites into a 50 degree inclined orbit. And so that's-- that brings their total number of Guo Wang satellites now to 95 operational satellites. They've got 18 test satellites. And they've also got three satellites in geosynchronous orbit, actually geostationary orbit as well. So all that together is about 116 satellites, planned to have well over-- I think it's almost 13,000 satellites. So you can see why having a very cheap, reusable lift capability to low Earth orbit is very important for these plants. And Guo Wang is kind of the state sponsored of these megaconstellations. There's actually three megaconstellations that China is planning on. Guo Wang is one of them. Another one is called the Thousand Sales, or Qian Fan. And they actually had a recent launch as well, using a Long March 6C. All six of their launches have had 18 satellites on board, all going to the same inclination, which is 89 degrees. However, one interesting thing to note on this particular launch, the time between batch 5 and batch 6 is 220 days. So you have a better part of a year. Prior to this, the first five launches had a launch cadence of one launch every, on average, 54 days. So they encountered some production problems, it looks like. So their second group of 18 satellites, what I'm tracking, is only three of them have actually made it to their operational orbit. So they uncovered some sort of problem with their satellite manufacturing of suspect. And I think that's what caused the extended period between batch 5 and batch 6. So we'll see how batch 6 behaves. And what the implications are for their launch cadence. I'm just thinking to compare Guo Wang, we just hit 10,000 for Starlink. So a little bit of catch-up needed. But I'm sure the catch-up can happen quite quickly once Yu-Kui starts launching at a fast cadence. So I guess we'll see. And then there are others working on reusable launch capacity in China as well. This is the one that appears to be furthest down the road. But it's certainly something that they're focused on. More traditional launch, China launched its largest rocket, which is the Long March 5 Bravo, or 5B. And this time it had an extended faring on it. So standard faring is about 12.3 meters. This one is about five meters greater, so close to 18 meters long. And same diameter, but just taller. You wouldn't do that on accident, right? So that to me indicates a larger satellite with either some sort of larger payload, maybe there's discussion about using a larger bus with more power capacity. Could be any of those things. And onboard was what they call the TGS-20 satellite, which is going out to geosynchronous orbit. Just launched a couple days ago. So it's still in what they call geosynchronous transfer orbit. So it's working its way out there. Expect to see that thing settle in in the next seven to 10 days or so. The interesting thing about this is that they've only launched two other satellites with this extended faring on a Long March 5. And that was the Yalgan 41, which they launched in late 2023. And a few months after that, in early 2024, they launched what's called TGS-11. TGS satellites have a number of different possible uses. Some are used for missile warnings. Some are used, we believe, for signals collection. And still others, we aren't really sure what they're used for. The same manufacturer for TGS-11 is the manufacturer for TGS-20. And TGS-11 has been associated with a signals collection mission on unclassified sources. So we're waiting to see where TGS-20 winds up in in geo. In the case of TGS-11, it is kind of in the vicinity of that Yalgan 41 satellite that I mentioned previously. What I didn't mention previously is Yalgan 41 is a geo-based imaging satellite that we believe is capable of pretty good resolution from that distance. So about 5 meter resolution from a position 36,000 kilometers above the equator is pretty good. So I'm looking to see where they wind up parking TGS-20. What inclination is it going to be? Is it going to have any other interesting Chinese neighbors that we need to know about? Maybe they're working together. We'll wait and see. The final interesting space operation that happened, I will say, is that we had SJ-23, which is one of these Chinese wandering satellites. It's out in geo and spends a lot of its time just above the geo belt, tracking west. And then it decreases its orbit. And it's under geo, so it starts tracking east. And it's been tracking west now, or it's tracking west for about 220 days or so. Up until last week, when China reduced its altitude, which caused it to reverse its course and start tracking back to the east. So it basically covers from actually east of Guam, all the way over to Central Africa. That's kind of its path. Yes, it's a long way. Yeah, I'm just saying it's like a weird figure eight almost. As it's operating below the geo belt, its figure eight is kind of tracking to one direction or another. So it's not completing the figure eight. It's kind of heading off to either to the east or to the west. What was interesting about this particular maneuver is that it looks like Chinese operators timed it so that SJ23 would have about a 47 kilometer close approach with another Chinese satellite called TGS14, which was launched in 2024. We don't know why this was done. But on its final-- at furthest point to the west, SJ23 had this close approach with TGS14 completely safe. There was no risk of collisions or anything like that. And then about six hours later, they actually maneuvered and dropped its altitude and caused it to reverse course and passed by TGS14 one more time. And now SJ23 is tracking to the east. It's currently still over Central Africa. It only moves it tracking to the east about a half a degree a day, a little bit more than that. So we expect it to turn around once it gets past Guam again in about eight or nine months, I guess. Fascinating. OK. So that's China for today. But is anything else going on? So in 2014, they launched this satellite called the-- it was being called many things, but it goes by the name of Luch Olymp K1 at this point. So Luch Olymp was kind of infamous for maneuvers around in geosynchronous orbit. And it got in the habit of getting somewhat close to-- never dangerous, but somewhat close to other Western communications satellites. And then it would just kind of loiter there for months at a time. And it did this a number of times over the last 10 years or so. And it looks like it's still too early to say, but Luch, or Russian space operators, recently maneuvered Luch, increasing its altitude over 300 kilometers, placing it into what we would call a graveyard orbit. So we're not sure if they needed-- so now it's-- we're in the past, it would drift a couple degrees a day until it got to its intended location. Then it would kind of join the geo belt and stay in that one location for a period of time. Now they're tracking it about four degrees a day. So they either are trying to get someplace in a hurry, or what's potentially is this satellite's mission has run its course. And maybe they're close to being out of fuel or something, and Russia's doing the responsible thing and getting it out of the way and putting it into this graveyard orbit. We won't know for sure for a few months. Apparently the satellite is still active in terms of communications. But this behavior is unusual for Luch K1. There's a Luch Olimp K2 out there. It is still more than active in hanging out with Western communication satellites and geo. So there's still other things to keep our eyes on in terms of the Russians. But it seems that at least for now, might need to pour one out for Luch Olimp K1. Is there anything else that you wanted to highlight, Greg, since I've got you here? Anything else that you wanted to share? No, I think the only other thing I'd say is that integrity ISR, we'd have a number of online courses that kind of break down some of the concepts that we talk about here, Maria. And we're a company made up largely of veterans. And so the month of November, we like to have a special sale for all veterans out there. So from the 1st through the 30th of November, we're offering half off the cost of tuition for many of our online courses. And folks can go to integrityISR.com or ISRuniversity.com and sign up there. And we've got a special promo code. If they use T minus, then that'll give them the ability to save 50% off the tuition price. Our thanks to Greg Gillinger for joining us for our monthly Space Intelligence check-in. And if you have a question that you would like him to answer, send it on over to us. Space@ntuk.com is our email, and we will make sure to share your questions with Greg. (upbeat music) We'll be right back. Welcome back. And I'm gonna hand you over now to Torsten Kreening from SpaceWatch Global, with the latest from the European Space Policy Institute event in Vienna. - Hello, Maria. It's great to be back. So maybe it becomes a regular element of your show now. So, but also hello, Space Watchers, reporting a day belated from the heart of Europe and from one of its most breathtaking venues, the Vienna Town Hall in Vienna, Austria. If you haven't been there, Google it and get impressed by the architecture and the impressive beauty. Beneath its vaulted ceilings and golden chandeliers, the 19th SB Autumn Conference, organized by the European Space Policy Institute, gathers 382 ministers, heads of agencies, diplomats, and industry leaders to debate one defining question. Can Europe truly become a space power? And what must change to make that happen? This year's theme, Europe as a space power, directionality, priorities of strategic autonomy, captured the mood of urgency, a sense that Europe's next decade in space will depend not just on technology, but on speed, cooperation, and courage. SB director Ludwig Müller sets the tone and later closed the day with a powerful message. Europe is a space power, not as a slogan, but as an ambition we must realize together. He called for a shift from statement to substance and from ambition to realization, urging Europe to embrace open autonomy, interoperability, and collaboration, not isolation. With 16 nationalities represented 35 from outside Europe, the world was clearly watching how Europe defines its strategic role in space. The early sessions didn't shy away from difficult truths. UK's MP George Freeman and Estonias Mario Pedersic challenged Europe to break its own habit. Power means serious funding and the courage to fail fast. They argued that Europe's future competitiveness hinges on dual-use innovation and industrial speed, not bureaucracy. In the heads of agency dialogue, Germany's Walter Pelzer, Switzerland's Renato Caprune and Portugal's Ricardo Conda agreed the old divide between civil and defense base is gone. Caprune called for open autonomy, a model that links sovereignty with cooperation. Conda highlighted Portugal's agility, issuing launch licenses in 45 days and stressed partnerships with Africa and Latin America as part of a broader space diplomacy agenda. Meanwhile, Slovenia's Sabina Kulesa remind us the audience that space power is also about climate resilience, education, and societal benefits, not just defense or industry. One of the days most talked about sessions was the innovation panel featuring Srinatov Sullivan of Harvard Business School and Matthias Ling of the Luxembourg Space Agency, or Sullivan's words "landed like a droid". If we all believe, "Esa will be there forever, maybe that's the problem". She argued that Europe's lack of risk culture is the biggest barrier to innovation. The US multiplies new money, Europe protects old money. That's not how you win in space. Matthias Ling offered a sharp contrast showing how Luxembourg's commercial first model has created agility and success. We can't outspend bigger nations, but we can outspeed them. Luxembourg's approach, faster decisions, clear business plans, and early education is building a hands-on generation of engineers. From primary schools to parabolic flights, Luxembourg is literally teaching kids to build rockets, not just talk about them. Both agreed that for Europe to lead, it must cut bureaucracy, scale capital, and reward those who build, not just regulate. A particular striking observation came from the Middle Eastern countries session, where delegates spoke candidly about shifting alliances. In a world where US reliability is increasingly questioned, China is seen as an alternative partner, not necessarily out of alignment, but out of necessity. This message resonated deeply in the room. The geopolitical vacuum left by hesitation is being filled, and if Europe doesn't act decisively, others will. It was a reminder that Europe's space power is as much about strategic credibility as it is about satellites or funding. The Vienna Town Hall itself became a symbol of Europe's ambition, historic, open, and visionary. It was more than just a venue. It was a declaration that Europe's space debate has moved to the center of political gravity. Merle closed with energy and humility. Europe's space power will not build in isolation, but through leadership by partnership. It closed the event and confirmed the Vienna Town Hall will host the conference again next year, and if you have a chance to be there, try to register. So, my four takeaways from Vienna. First, Europe must act with speed and unity or risk becoming a spectator in the new space race. Second, innovation needs risk taker, not just regulators and committees. Third, space diplomacy is now central. Europe's partnership will define its power. Fourth, if the village is awake, now it must move. On the forecast of the Vienna Town Hall, this is my short review, where Europe's space ambitions meet reality and left with a challenge to finally act as a space power it aspires to be. Back to you, Maria, and happy Halloween. And a huge thank you as always to Torsten and the SpaceWatch Global Team for providing their insights for us. And that's T-minus, brought to you by N2K Cyberwire. We'd love to know what you think of our podcast. Your feedback ensures we deliver the insights that keep you a step ahead in the rapidly changing space industry. If you like our show, please share a rating and review in your podcast app. Please also fill out the survey in the show notes or send an email, thespace@n2k.com. We are proud that N2K Cyberwire is part of the daily routine of the most influential leaders and operators in the public and private sector. From the Fortune 500 to many of the world's preeminent intelligence and law enforcement agencies, N2K helps space and cybersecurity professionals grow, learn, and stay informed. As the nexus for discovery and connection, we bring you the people, the technology, and the ideas shaping the future of secure innovation. Learn how at N2K.com. N2K's senior producer is Alice Carruth. Our producer is Liz Stokes. We are mixed by Elliott Peltzman and Tre Hester with original music by Elliott Peltzman. Our executive producer is Jennifer Eiben. Peter Kilpe is our publisher, and I am your host, Maria Varmazis. Thank you for listening. We'll see you tomorrow. (upbeat music) - T minus. (crashing) (thunder rumbling) [BLANK_AUDIO]